Tailwinds

Sunnier Days

April 25, 2016

Sunnier Days

April 25, 2016 SEIA


Just a few short months ago, we wrote at length about the stranglehold that fear seemed to have on both investors’ psyches and on the markets at large. Despite a steady stream of encouraging economic reports showing continued growth in employment, strong consumer spending and service economy expansion, a cloud of worry that a slowdown in China might be triggering another global recession or a potential monetary policy mistake persisted.
Download the full article here.

What should you do with that 401(k) when you retire?

April 22, 2016 SEIA


SEIA was featured in the Washington Post.
Click here to read the full article.

The End of Fiscal Austerity

March 15, 2016 SEIA


Between the never-ending U.S. election coverage and the recent turmoil in global capital markets, there’s a good chance you may have missed the December headlines coming out of Congress. For the first time in a halfdecade, the legislative body finally took positive action to benefit economic growth.
Download the full article here.

FEAR OR FUNDAMENTALS?

March 10, 2016 SEIA


After a frustrating 2015, where most major asset classes either returned less than 1% or lost money outright, investors were welcomed into the new year with the worst first ­week of stock market losses—EVER! Following the 6th worst opening day since 1928, the S&P 500 continued to lose ground, ending the first full week down 6%, with the tech­ heavy NASDAQ down 7.3%. But losses weren’t confined strictly to Large Caps—by mid­day Monday, small cap stocks (Russell 2000) were officially in bear market territory, down more than 20% from their June peak.
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2016: Fear Trumps Fundamentals

February 20, 2016 SEIA


After a frustrating 2015, where most major asset classes either returned less than 1% or lost money outright, investors were welcomed into the new year with the worst first-week of stock market losses— EVER! After the 6th worst opening day since 1928, the S&P 500 continued to lose ground the rest of the week and by Friday the Index was down 6%, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ down 7.3%. And losses weren’t confined strictly to Large Caps—by midday Monday, small cap stocks (Russell 2000) were officially in bear market territory, down more than 20% from their June peak.
 
Download the full article here.

Why You Should Do A Digital Inventory of Your Assets

February 8, 2016 SEIA


SEIA’s very own Tom West was featured in this U.S. News article.
To read the full article click here.

The Top 25 High-Net-Worth Advisors in 2016

January 4, 2016 SEIA


SEIA was ranked among the 25 top high-net-worth advisors in 2016.
See the full list here.

OPPOSITES ATTRACT

December 31, 2015 SEIA


They say opposites attract. In capital markets, perhaps there are no two more opposite asset types than high-quality U.S. Treasuries and energy-related Master Limited Partnerships. One is deemed perhaps the safest asset in the world, while the other lately seems perpetually mired in losses. We focus on them a bit more closely this quarter, as we may be at an inflection point— for both assets.
Download our full report here.

Media Highlights

October 19, 2015 SEIA


Issues II & III of 2015 highlight SEIA’s featured articles throughout the year. Including articles such as:

Lamar Odom’s medical debacle offers lessons on estate planning, InvestmentNews.com, 10/19/15
The Right Way to Take Your IRA Withdrawals, Time.com, 10/14/15
The Shocking Things People (Especially Those Over 64) Don’t Know About Medicare, Huffington Post, 10/05/2015
Where to Stash Your Cash, Barron’s, 10/03/15
14 Technologies Seniors Should Use To Make Life Easier, About.com, 10/02/15
Prepare Your Bond Portfolio for Rising Interest Rates, The Street, 09/23/15
Barron’s names SEIA CEO Brian Holmes as a Top Independent Financial Advisor for Nine Consecutive Years, Market Wired, September 15, 2015
3 Ways Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Retirees, The Street, September 9, 2015
Financial Tips for Career Changers, U.S. News & World Report, August 2015
Financial Tips for Career Changers, Yahoo! Finance, August 2015
SEIA named on Los Angeles Business Journal’s Best Places to Work list, August 2015
When $1.5 Million Isn’t Enough for Retirement, Money Magazine, July 2015
Is Your Financial Advisor a Good Curator?, U.S. News & World Report, July 2015
Los Angeles Business Journal: The 100 Largest Money Management Firms,June 2015
Signature Estate and Investment Advisors, LLC Crosses $5 Billion in Managed Assets, May 2015
How to Jump Into the Foreign Rally, Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2015
Epic Rally in Stocks to Keep Running, CNN Money, April 2015
Take Advantage of Tax Alpha, InvestmentNews, April 2015
Q2 Investing Strategies: Top Five ETF Buys From Powerhouses With $1 Billion+ In Assets Under Management, Forbes, April 2015

To read issue II click here.
To read issue III click here.
 

Consistency Matters

October 15, 2015 SEIA


Brian D. Holmes was recently ranked in Barron’s list of the top independent financial advisors for the ninth consecutive year. See the full article here.

JAPAN: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS

September 4, 2015 SEIA


Global investors and even Japanese citizens are woefully although understandably under allocated to Japanese stocks. Why? For most of our “investment” lifetimes, the island nation has been a place to avoid, with equities (Nikkei 225) still unable to fully recover from the Japanese bubble that popped 25­years ago. From the 1989 top to the 2009 bottom, Japanese stocks lost 83% of their value. Even despite recent gains, a $1 million Japanese equity investment made in 1989 would be worth $500,000 today compared to $6 million if invested in U.S. stocks (S&P 500).
Download our full report here.

Like Any Summer Squall, This Too Shall Pass

August 25, 2015 SEIA


On May 21st, U.S. stocks (S&P 500®) reached an all-time high of 2130. But summer squalls overseas (Greece, China, etc.) have subsequently rattled global investors and caused many to hit the sell button, pushing stocks lower into “correction” territory – a drop of 10% from their springtime highs. The sudden bout of volatility may seem out of the ordinary but only because stocks have traded in their narrowest band ever through the first eight months of the year. But the lack of volatility is by no means merely a 2015 story. Over the last three calendar years, at no time have stocks retrenched more than 7% from their highs, which is in stark contrast to historical averages. Dating back to 1980, the average intra-year drop is 14.2%!
Download the full article here.

Japan: Past 25-year Performance is Not Indicative of Future Returns

June 15, 2015 SEIA


Global investors and even Japanese citizens are woefully although understandably under allocated to Japanese stocks. Why? For most of our “investment” lifetimes, the island nation has been a place to avoid, with equities (Nikkei 225) still unable to fully recover from the Japanese bubble that popped 25-years ago. From the 1989 top to the 2009 bottom, Japanese stocks lost 83% of their value. Even despite recent gains, a $1 million Japanese equity investment made in 1989 would be worth $500,000 today compared to $6 million if invested in U.S. stocks (S&P 500). And that pain wasn’t merely limited to a bad investment made during a narrow window in late 1989. The same investment into Japanese stocks made 6 years later (the typical length of a normal business cycle) would still be down 1% compared to a 350% gain here stateside. Is there any wonder why investors love U.S. stocks and seemingly despise the third largest economy on earth?
 
Download the full article here.

GLOBAL EQUITY HORSERACE: AN UPDATE ON EUROPE

June 10, 2015 SEIA


Six years into an economic cycle is bound to bring on some changes. In every bull market, as it matures, consumer sentiment improves. It’s only natural that we should collectively feel better as our stocks gain wealth. However, “happier” investors tend to fuel exuberant over sustained rallies, and eventually greed begins to take hold. As the herd mentality sets in, prices move ever higher—until ultimately valuations become too stretched and the inevitable downslope of the business cycle begins and equity prices correct.
Download our full report here.

The Global Equity Horserace: An Update on Europe

May 10, 2015 SEIA


The month of March marks a couple of key milestones in recent investor lore. On March 9th 2000, the NASDAQ broke through 5000 and peaked one day later at 5048 (the only two days the index closed above that mark). Fifteen years later, the index is once again poised to break through the momentous level as it rests at 4976 at the time of this writing. March 9th also marks the sixth anniversary of the current (U.S.) bull market which has taken the S&P 500 index from a then low of 676 to a late February high near 2115—a gain of over 1440 points! The nearly 230% gain has led most major global indices and vaulted the S&P 500 back into the spotlight as the world’s darling, fulfilling our 2011 SEIA Report hypothesis that “the time will soon be upon us when stocks again regain their status as king of the investment choices.” While the media will focus on the NASDAQ and compare and contrast 2015 with 2000, we believe that it is more prudent to analyse the S&P 500 and compare today with the economic landscape of just a few years back. Our conclusion? The biggest gains from U.S. stocks may be behind us as the world’s thoroughbred rounds the last turn in this business cycle.
Download the full article here.

THE ECONOMICS OF OIL PRICES AND POTENTIAL IMPACT TO YOUR PORTFOLIO

March 17, 2015 SEIA


On June 19th of last year, Crude Oil was trading at $106.83/barrel. A mere seven months later, on January 19th, frenetic trading had brought the price per barrel down to $46.47 (a historical drop of 56%). Yet demand is holding steady and, in fact, projected to increase over the next couple of years. The problem today is not a demand problem but rather a “supply” problem that’s directly attributable to the U.S. Shale Oil revolution. In short, the world is awash in too much oil.
Download our full report here.

Crude Oil

February 20, 2015 SEIA


Several years ago, many of the discussions in SEIA’s Investment Committee (IC) centered on whether the commodity “Super Cycle” of the last decade had finally come to a close. Long-term investors will recall that the period of the 2000s was marked by outperformance from commodities due in part to strong Emerging Market economies. China’s rapid ascension gave a boost to any commodity needed to urbanize a vast and populous country (copper and iron ore to build, coal to run the power plants that provide electricity, and crude oil to fuel a new car-buying nation). The influx of capital into these economies strengthened their currencies at the expense of a weaker U.S. Dollar. These stronger currencies could then be used to buy more commodities to build more things, and the “super cycle” was on.
Download the full article here.

2014 MID TERM ELECTIONS: A LOT CAN CHANGE IN 6 YEARS

December 31, 2014 SEIA


Six years after the 2008 election, which netted Democrats 60 Senate seats and a super majority (along with the ability to enact broad legislation), the 2014 midterm “Republican wave” changed the balance of power, resulting in the most dominantly Republican Congress since 1929. In the Senate, Republicans picked up at least seven seats giving them a 52-54-seat majority (races are still to be decided in Alaska and Louisiana). In the House, they gained 13 seats to give the party its largest majority since before World War II.
Download our full report here.

The 2014 Autumn Fall: Have the Leaves of Global Growth Changed Color?

October 11, 2014 SEIA


Three weeks ago, the S&P 500 (a measure of U.S. Large Cap stocks) hit a new closing high of 2011.36 (intraday high of 2019 a day later) and was up 10% for the year after returning 32% the year prior. Such fantastic returns over a relatively short period of time prompted the SEIA Investment Committee to mention this past July that investors should “revisit ones asset allocation as the moves over the last 18 months may have left some investors overexposed.” But now that the U.S. stock market has backed away from its historical high, investors are now asking whether anything has changed or rather has the change in fall colors coincided with a change in our outlook for economic growth.
Download the full article here.

Brian Holmes, CEO of Signature Estate and Investment Advisors, Named to Barron’s Top 100 Independent Financial Advisors List for 8th Consecutive Year

October 1, 2014 SEIA


This article features Brian Holmes as one of Barron’s top independent financial advisors for the 8th consecutive year.
To read the full article click here.

Paul Taghibagi of Signature Estate and Investment Advisors, Named to Barron’s Top 100 Independent Financial Advisors List for 3rd Consecutive Year

October 1, 2014 SEIA


This article features Paul Taghibagi as one of Barron’s top independent financial advisors for the 3rd consecutive year.
To read the full article click here.

WHY THE TRADITIONAL ASSET ALLOCATION PLAYBOOK MAY BE OBSOLETE: THE X’S AND O’S OF ALTERNATIVES

September 4, 2014 SEIA


Asset allocation “strategies” have traditionally been limited to determining what percentage of a portfolio should be invested in stocks vs. bonds. Bond yields around the globe are at historical lows. Rates are eventually heading higher, which will lead to interest rate risk for bond holders’ principal. Domestic equities are arguably in the later innings of an all already above average bull market in terms of length and returns. So it is therefore safe to say that “traditional” asset allocation is not what it once was. Consequently, high net worth investors are increasingly turning towards Alternative Investments (“alts”) as a part of their overall long term game plan. With this in mind, let’s break down the game film on alternative investments:
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THE RECIPE FOR A MATURING BULL MARKET

June 30, 2014 SEIA


FEAR: A five-year-old bull market can change people. Not that long ago, we were preaching to anyone who would listen the merits of stocks. But the conversation proved difficult as fear overwhelmed many investors. As recently as February 2011 we said, “Even with our current bull market posting a near 100% gain…history suggests that this bull may still have room to run.”
Download our full report here.

Los Angeles Signature Estate and Investment Advisors SEIA Continues Rapid Growth Now at 4 Billion in Managed Assets

June 30, 2014 SEIA


Signature Estate and Investment Advisors, LLC (SEIA), a full service wealth management firm headquartered in Southern California, has surpassed $4 Billion AUM* and is growing at a rapid pace, with a completely organic approach that exemplifies the power of independent financial advice. The firm has created an advisor-client-community service ecosystem second to none, that fuels growth by optimizing the way clients receive financial advice.
 
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Globalization vs. the U.S. Business Cycle: The Effects on U.S. Interest Rates

April 22, 2014 SEIA


Many investors believed that U.S. interest rates, which started the year at 3.02%, would move north this year and approach 3.50%. But in fact, the opposite has occurred and rates now sit at 2.50% as of August 4th. What happened? This year, Europe joined Japan with another aggressive attempt at further easing of monetary policy, which pushed interest rates lower across the Atlantic. German government bonds (Bunds) are now at an historic low yield of just over 1.15%. Even in troubled Spain, corresponding bond yields have moved below 2.30% to reach their lowest yield dating back 225 years to 1789! Although low, European yields are not the lowest in the developed world. Across the Pacific, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have an astonishingly low yield of 0.50%. In an era of globalization and rapid money movement, it is hard to argue that current U.S. yields of 2.50% are unattractive compared to corresponding bonds overseas. The 135 basis point (bps) spread between Treasuries and Bunds is rapidly approaching record levels. In fact, the last two times the spread was this wide it soon reversed course leading to one of two results, higher Bund yields or lower Treasury yields. But which outcome is most likely? Let’s analyze each case.
Download the full article here.

2014 Q1 EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: “DO THE MATH”

March 30, 2014 SEIA


Analysts can value assets in many ways. For real estate, metrics such as Costper-Square Foot and Capitalization Rates are common. For equities, valuation ratios include Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF), Price-to-Sales (P/S), Price-to-Book (P/B) and the lengthy Enterprise Value-toEarnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA).
Download our full report here.

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